Peruvian exports with the possibility of closing the year in double digits: the expectations that the sector will have towards 2025

Peruvian exports this year have had a better situation compared to 2023, a year in which the sector was mainly affected by weather phenomena. In 2024, until October, national shipments abroad accumulated some US$60,168 million, representing an increase of 14.5% compared to the same time in 2023, according to information from the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism (Mincetur).

That is why the forecasts from that portfolio indicate that exports will exceed US$73,000 million, as indicated this month by the head of Mincetur, Desilú León. In comparison, in 2023 the figure reached US$64,474 million.

As the Vice Minister of Foreign Trade, Teresa Mera, stated to this newspaper, this increase would be almost 10%, an auspicious figure for the sector. And if in 2023 the climatic events affected the fishing and agricultural sectors, Mera recalled, for this year the situation has been different. We have been favored by the continued high prices of metals, indicated Mercedes Obregón, senior analyst of Economic Studies of the Foreign Trade Society of Peru (ComexPerú); as well as the increase in the prices of agricultural products such as coffee and cocoa, added Mera. And, the increase in the volume of coffee and blueberry exports.

“During these last months the average monthly export value [at a general level] is around US$6,000 million. Yes, the Mincetur projection would be reached. We would believe that we would be at the base of US$73,000 million. This last month, December, would give us the guideline to say if we could exceed US$74,000 million,” said Obregón.

For César Tello, first vice president of the Association of Exporters (Adex), the estimates would be higher. This association projects that the increase in exports will range between 13% and 15%. At the level of the traditional segment, the increase would be 16% and in the non-traditional segment, above 7%.

Another point that the expert highlights is that Peruvian imports would exceed US$50 billion, so the trade surplus would reach about US$23.3 billion.
How will exports fare in 2025?
Unlike this year, the level of export growth would not be similar to that of 2024, Tello considered. Thus, he estimated an increase of 3% and 5% in the sector.

“Traditional exports should grow by 3% and non-traditional exports between 4% and 5%. Non-traditional exports are taking on greater weight in total exports, it will be 27% [of participation] and probably next year they will be 28%,” he added.
With this, Tello said that there would be lagging sectors in 2024 and that would grow in the new year, such as non-traditional fishing, grapes and mango.

Despite the climatic problems, agricultural exports continue to grow driven by key products such as blueberries, grapes and coffee.

In addition, Vice Minister Mera adds that the best forecast in the case of grapes is also supported by the opening of the Japanese market this year. Other products that would increase their export volume would be citrus fruits, with the opening of the Brazilian market, and blueberries, she added.

Likewise, opportunities in shipments abroad would also occur in turmeric, ginger and pitahaya, she added.
For her part, for Obregón, it is a challenge that exports exceed US$70,000 million next year, but that the forecasts could have a more accurate outlook in the second part of 2025, a period in which there is usually greater export movement.
It should be remembered that the BCR estimated that exports in 2025 would reach US$78,564 million and in 2026 US$82,618 million

The export growth in the new year must also consider positive points, such as the validity of the Cabotage Law and the Port of Chancay. According to Mera, this port terminal could concentrate a quarter of agricultural exports.
“Chancay has the potential to concentrate 25% of the value of our agricultural exports by sea and 22% of total exports,” he said, adding that fruits would be the main cargo that would be in the port.

At an external level, Tello indicated, a factor to consider will be the tariff policy that the elected president Donald Trump would have, for products from China and the rest of the world. If this does not happen, the external scenario would be favorable, he added.

Likewise, by 2026, growth in exports could also be expected, said the first vice president of Adex, if private investment projects are carried out, such as the irrigation projects Majes Siguas II and Chavimochic III, as well as in mining, with the Expansion of Antamina, the execution of Zafranal, among others.

Source: Diario El Comercio